Auktionshuset Sotheby’s som bobleindikator

Dette indlæg er mere end 500 dage gammelt. Markedsforhold, priser, regler mv. kan have ændret sig, siden jeg skrev indlægget.

Korrelation eller kausalitet:

  • Aktiekursen på auktionshuset Sotheby’s er på det højeste siden 1987.
  • Aktiekursen har tidligere toppet omkring aktieboblerne i forbindelse med LBO-bølgen, dotcom og subprime
  • Er det en ny boble?

Tja, måske. Hvor god er man så til at time markedet, hvis man bruger Sotheby-indikatoren konsistent? Ikke særlig god, hvis man skal tro Cam Hui fra Humble Student of the Markets:

In the chart, the dates of the BID/SPX ratio peaks are shown in red while the dates of the subsequent SPX peaks are shown in black. Peaks in the de-trended BID/SPX ratio led the actual market peak by between 0 months (1990) to 11 months (2000).

My modified Sotheby’s Indicator peaked out in October 2013, though the highs it reached was not as high as levels seen in previous significant market peaks. However, the chart shows that this indicator is not very useful as a tactical timing model as the lags between the peaks in the Sotheby’s Indicator are uncertain. Nevertheless, it does provide a warning of the investment environment.

Læs mere:

The Chanos Sotheby’s Indicator flashes a warning
Cam Hui
Humble Student of the Markets

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