En interessant observation her i regnskabssæsonen om forward guidance på det amerikanske aktiemarked fra David Einhorn’s seneste brev til investorerne i Greenlight Capital:
During the first few years of the market recovery, the formula for higher stock prices was “beat estimates and raise guidance.” Not anymore. Now it’s enough to beat the curent quarter, and make it easier to beat the next one too by simultaneously lowering forward expectations. “Beat and Raise” has become “Beat and Lower” and seems just as effective at driving stocks higher. Indeed, in the recent qurter, 70% of companies in the S&P 500 “beat” the official street estimates, while forward estimates fell for roughly the same percentage of companies.
Det er rare tider at være aktieselskab, når der ikke skal mere til at trække aktierne op, end at man overgår de forventninger, som man selv har været med til at trække lidt ned ved at udsende lav guidance efter forrige kvartalsregnskab.
Selskaber tilstræber altid at leve op til forventningerne
Ifølge et paper om styring af regnskabernes nøgletal er aktieselskaber meget fokuserede på at leve op til eller slå egne forventninger, og noget tyder på, at selskaberne “masserer” deres indtjening så det passer med tidligere udmeldte forventninger.
My results provide some support that these firms may have managed earnings upwards to
meet earnings expectations, but that does not imply that firms that just meet forecasts experience inferior future firm and stock performance.
Links
Greenlight Capital Q2 2013 shareholder letter
David Einhorn
July 26, 2013
Earnings Management to Just Meet Analyst’s Forecast (pdf)
Jimmy Lee
May 2007
Kellog Graduate School of Management, Northwestern University