Sommerlæsning: Historien om IT-boblen i 90’erne

Dette indlæg er mere end 500 dage gammelt. Markedsforhold, priser, regler mv. kan have ændret sig, siden jeg skrev indlægget.

Sommertemaet om finansielle bobler fortsætter ufortrødent med it-boblen. Herunder lidt citater fra en 14 år gammel artikel, (pdf), fra toppen af boblen i maj 1999 om at holde igen med jagten på de hurtige aktieafkast:

For the next few months, perhaps even for a year or two, this may seem like one of the stupidest investing columns ever written. That’s because I’ve been asked to answer the question “Can you get rich by buying an Internet stock fund?” and my answer is no. Yes, I know: The Internet Fund was up 196% in 1998 and another 84% through March […] Who can resist returns like these?

Fra artiklen om it-boblen: The notion that you will get rich "buying early" is just wrong.
Fra artiklen, Money, May 1999.

Særligt hans pointe om, at det er svært at finde fremtidens vindere er værd at have i baghovedet også i dag:

Thus Microsoft now appears to have been a sure thing – but, in fact, it was considered a controversial and risky stock at the time, and many professional money managers wouldn’t touch it until 1991.

Microsoft’s spectacular gain makes picking longterm winners seem much easier than it really is because it makes us forget that in 1986 several other companies such as Novell and Borland looked just as likely as Microsoft to dominate the software business.

Seneste eksempel er Better Place’s konkurs. Der er næppe meget tvivl om, at elbiler er fremtiden, men det er ikke ensbetydende med, at det første selskab til at rulle fremtidens produkt ud også bliver fremtidens vinder.

Jeg fandt den gamle artikel i Jason Zweigs indlæg The Intelligent Investor: Saving Investors From Themselves på Wall Street Journal. Hans kommentar om finansielle medier rammer plet:

The advice that sounds the best in the short run is always the most dangerous in the long run. Everyone wants the secret, the key, the roadmap to the primrose path that leads to El Dorado: the magical low-risk, high-return investment that can double your money in no time. Everyone wants to chase the returns of whatever has been hottest and to shun whatever has gone cold. Most financial journalism, like most of Wall Street itself, is dedicated to a basic principle of marketing: When the ducks quack, feed ‘em.

Links (pdf-link)
Trykt i Money, maj 1999
Skrevet af Jason Zweig

The Intelligent Investor: Saving Investors From Themselves
WSJ Moneybeat
Jason Zweig